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The Inevitable: Understanding the 12 Technological Forces That Will Shape Our Future, by Kevin Kelly
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A New York Times Bestseller
From one of our leading technology thinkers and writers, a guide through the twelve technological imperatives that will shape the next thirty years and transform our lives
Much of what will happen in the next thirty years is inevitable, driven by technological trends that are already in motion. In this fascinating, provocative new book, Kevin Kelly provides an optimistic road map for the future, showing how the coming changes in our lives—from virtual reality in the home to an on-demand economy to artificial intelligence embedded in everything we manufacture—can be understood as the result of a few long-term, accelerating forces. Kelly both describes these deep trends—interacting, cognifying, flowing, screening, accessing, sharing, filtering, remixing, tracking, and questioning—and demonstrates how they overlap and are codependent on one another. These larger forces will completely revolutionize the way we buy, work, learn, and communicate with each other. By understanding and embracing them, says Kelly, it will be easier for us to remain on top of the coming wave of changes and to arrange our day-to-day relationships with technology in ways that bring forth maximum benefits. Kelly’s bright, hopeful book will be indispensable to anyone who seeks guidance on where their business, industry, or life is heading—what to invent, where to work, in what to invest, how to better reach customers, and what to begin to put into place—as this new world emerges.
- Sales Rank: #1265 in Books
- Published on: 2016-06-07
- Released on: 2016-06-07
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.06" w x 6.30" l, 1.04 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 336 pages
Review
Praise for The Inevitable
"Anyone can claim to be a prophet, a fortune teller, or a futurist, and plenty of people do. What makes Kevin Kelly different is that he's right. In this book, you're swept along by his clear prose and unassailable arguments until it finally hits you: The technological, cultural, and societal changes he’s foreseeing really are inevitable. It’s like having a crystal ball, only without the risk of shattering."
—David Pogue, Yahoo Tech
"This book offers profound insight into what happens (soon!) when intelligence flows as easily into objects as electricity."
—Chris Anderson, author of The Long Tail
“How will the future be made? Kevin Kelly argues that the sequence of events ensuing from technical innovation has its own momentum . . . and that our best strategy is to understand and embrace it. Whether you find this prospect wonderful or terrifying, you will want to read this extremely thought-provoking book.”
—Brian Eno, musician and composer
"Kevin Kelly has been predicting our technological future with uncanny prescience for years. Now he's given us a glimpse of how the next three decades will unfold with The Inevitable, a book jam-packed with insight, ideas, and optimism."
—Ernest Cline, author of Ready Player One
"As exhilarating as the most outlandish science fiction novel, but based on very real trends. Kevin Kelly is the perfect tour guide for this life-changing future."
—Mark Frauenfelder, Boing Boing
"Creating a fictional future is easy; Kevin Kelly makes a habit of doing the difficult by showing us where we're actually going. The Inevitable is an eye-opening roadmap for what lies ahead. Science fiction is on its way to becoming science fact."
—Hugh Howey, author of Wool
“Automatic must-read.”
—Marc Andreessen, co-founder Andreessen Horowitz
About the Author
Kevin Kelly helped launch Wired magazine and was its executive editor for its first seven years. He has written for The New York Times, The Economist, Science, Time, and The Wall Street Journal among many other publications. His previous books include Out of Control, New Rules for the New Economy, Cool Tools, and What Technology Wants. Currently Senior Maverick at Wired, Kelly lives in Pacifica, California.
Most helpful customer reviews
49 of 55 people found the following review helpful.
Profound Ideas by a Deep Thinker + Suggestion on Reading
By Bassocantor
THE INEVITABLE is not a simple book to read. The author is obviously a "Big Picture" thinker, rather than a detailed, programming type of analyst. The theme of THE INEVITABLE is not so much the mechanism of how technoogy works, but rather, how it has been (and will) impact society.
The subject matter in this book is profound, and can't easily be grasped with just a quick "once over" read. (At least, I certainly could not grasp it that quickly.) In fact, each of the 12 Chapters could actually have been an entire book all alone. This book can be a tough slog, but I hit upon a useful tactic, below.
**SUGGESTION FOR READING**
Read the first page from each of the 12 main chapters. You will get a feel for what Mr. Kelly is suggesting in that chapter. This will give you an outline of where the author is headed, and make reading the full book a lot easier."
Here's one meaty idea: The author quotes an economist at New York University, who suggests that creativity is now more a matter of "remixing" rather than creating truly new things. "Modern technologies are combinations of earlier primitive technologies that have been rearranged and remixed." Plus, we're doing it with less material: "The trend in the past 30 years has been to make better stuff using fewer materials."
The ideas are also a little bit scary. Mr. Kelly suggests that future generations will look back at ours as the first race that "linked themselves together into one very large thing." Well, I'm pretty sure I don't like the sound of that. I don't like the idea of being linked with everybody into a big "thing."
Another scary chapter is the one on "Tracking." I thought at first the author would emphasize loss of privacy--but he's really pointing at something else. There is a huge industry in the simple act of just creating sensors. "We are on our way to manufacturing 54 billion sensors every year by 2020."
So all in all, I thought THE INEVITABLE was a profund read--but also a tough read. Honestly, the ideas are so big, that I will need to mull over them quite a while.
But I still don't like that idea about everybody being connected to a "Big Thing."
Advance Review Copy courtesy of NetGalley
52 of 60 people found the following review helpful.
The Holos = The Machine + 7 Billion Souls
By Bob Blum
BUY IT! (How's that for signal to noise?)
This is the REAL DEAL - another magnum opus from Kevin Kelly (KK) - as crucial as his previous work, What Technology Wants. The many endorsements from the likes of Marc Andressen, David Pogue, and Chris Anderson are fully justified (and not just giving the Senior Maverick at WIRED his obeisance.)
KK is fully in sync with all the current developments in cloud computing and AI and reports on these with his usual WIRED clarity. He brings you all the cutting edge tech that's flowing from the entrepreneurs to the VCs in Cambridge and in Silicon Valley (and also in Munich, Seoul, Mumbai, and Shenzhen.)
But, this is no mere recitation of the tens of billions of dollars in AI deals that have pulsed through the Valley recently. He eloquently captures the big picture - he calls it the HOLOS - the combination of internet and web with all those borged human intelligences + all our tech.
Expanding on the early portraits of the Global Mind supplied presciently by H G Wells, Teilhard de Chardin, Vannevar Bush, and Ted Nelson (and more recently by Hans Moravec (Mind Children) Greg Stock (Metaman) and by Ben Goertzel (OpenCog)), KK presents an awe-inspiringly accurate picture of Earth's civilization and its heading.
Kevin lives near the seashore - perhaps it's the ocean's vastness that infuses his spirit with the transcendent perspective of (Stewart Brand's Whole Earthly) Long Now. We too (as Newton also remarked) are as children playing with bright pebbles on the edge of a vast ocean of knowledge (Teilhard's noosphere.)
10**21 transistors in tens of billions of always-on devices. This IS a phase change, something brand new, and it takes a hard-working seer to perceive the forest for the trees.
Here are just a few of the gems that await you: premium AI guaranteed NOT to be conscious (do you really want your self-driving car despondently mulling over its hapless interaction with its mechanic?)
Numbers galore (I love these): the frequency of searches BEFORE the internet: 104 billion searches per year (via 411 and the Yellow Pages (now used by kids on piano benches.)) ... versus, the frequency of search now: 600,000 per second = 600 kHz.
How can Google possibly make a profit? Cost of a search = 0.3 cents (in 2007:) advertising profit per search = 27 cents.
Annual expansion of information = 66% per year = Moore's Law. Requisite global expansion of storage media = 6,000 square meters per second = rate of expansion of nuclear shock wave.
I repeat: this is the REAL DEAL!
In his chapter on "Tracking" KK brings us up to the minute on the Quantified Self movement. With fellow WIRED writer, Gary Wolf, Kevin originated the QS groups in 2007. And he lives it - he's played with and reports on a decade's worth of devices for monitoring all your physio parameters, not to mention every conversation and every visual field (a la Gordon Bell's Total Recall.)
Virtual Reality: you get a whole chapter -(much unseen by me - and I sit 100 meters from Jeremy Bailenson's Stanford VR Lab. (VR? You think your kids are mesmerized by video games now?)
I'm trying to be brief, but - lest you think I'm an unabashed fanboy - some parts of KK's thesis need to be critiqued. (Remember Minority Report (KK helped with the tech) - was that a blissful utopia that any of us would welcome?)
He takes a decidedly optimistic view of the Big Machine - the "holos."
Lead on and we will follow, Oh Holos! ... to a rosy abundant future (a la Ray Kurzweil (Singularity) and Peter Diamandis (Abundance.) Rapture of the Nerds. (I, too, am enraptured, but ...)
Really? Is it so rosy that the middle class is getting crushed by the 1%? (David Brooks gets it right: it's not Obama; it's globalization and the march of cheap tech. That slide into poverty is propelling both Bernie Sanders and The Donald.) While KK and other techies think The Machine will create lots of new jobs to replace the horse and buggy drivers - tell that to the 99%.
Also, look at those millions of lost souls playing video games night and day and mindlessly following inane tweets. (Are we being lulled by our online games and VR into a soporific coma just this side of the morgue?) Is this all really so benign? (Or, are these just the holos's growing pains?)
And how about the biosphere and Earth's non-human inhabitants? Is the Big Machine holistically providing sustenance or is it maniacally abetting the destruction of Earth's ability to sustain life? You decide.
Despite some nagging questions, this work excels in the realms of both tech prophecy and literary virtue. (Like it or not, it's gonna happen.) Highly recommended.
19 of 21 people found the following review helpful.
Permission to Dream... Again
By Marcus Anthony
"We are marching inexorably toward firmly connecting all humans and all machines into a global matrix." So writes Kevin Kelly on the last page of The Inevitable. No doubt this will have some dialling furiously for Morpheus to deliver a fresh batch of red pills, to save us all. However, Kelly's "inevitable" future need not be so dystopian. The man is a techno-optimist, and his ebullient enthusiasm for the future shines bright on every page. Yet this is no super-geek future, where nerdy young men with coke-stained teeth peer at screens as they wrestle for control of human civilisation. No, there's something here for just about everyone. Sharing and cooperation are central tenets of Kevin Kelly's new age.
What I like about Kevin Kelly is his worldly wisdom. Here is a man in his mid-sixties who still travels and explores new lands, new peoples and new ideas. If ever we need a role-model for lifelong learning, we need look no further.
Kelly outlines twelve domains of the future. None is exhaustively explored, but all are tantalisingly prised open just far enough for the reader to gaze upon the treasures therein. The author invites us to look and to wonder and to dream. He sees technology not as the enemy, but as the key which will free us from baser physical and psychological requirements. Technology beckons us to contemplate the question, "What does it really mean to be human?" For, says Kelly, machines can liberate us from the mundane, setting us free to gaze upon the myriad futures with open hearts and open minds.
If this all sounds "utopian," don't tell Kevin Kelly. He hates that word.
It is undoubtedly true that the world is in need of visionaries who can point us towards desirable and abundant futures. We need permission to dream again. So much of our media and popular discourse is pessimistic. Perhaps we have been too down on ourselves. Kevin Kelly believes so.
I strongly recommend you read The Inevitable. You just might just change your mind about what is to come.
Marcus T Anthony, PhD, author.
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